All 32 NATO members now spend above 2% on defence

All 32 NATO members are now spending above 2% of GDP on defence, for the first time ever. Europe and Canada spent $574 billion last year, up 20% in a single year and more than double what they spent in 2014.

The target keeps moving

NATO’s real ambition is 5% of GDP. 3 countries are already past 3.5%: Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. The UK has committed to 2.5% by 2027, 3% the parliament after that and 3.5% by 2035, which the OBR estimates needs an extra £40 billion a year by then.

This is not a spike. It is a multi-year, government-backed spending curve with a floor under it that most sectors would kill for.

What it means for placing capital

If you are trying to place capital or find a strategic partner here right now:

• Revenue visibility is longer than almost anywhere else in the market. A budget commitment made this year is still spending in 2035.

• Every serious investor already knows this, so the companies with real technical moats and government contracts have more capital chasing them than they need.

• The actual opportunity is not spotting that defence is growing. Everyone knows that already. It is getting in front of the right company before that is obvious to everyone else too.

The gap

That is the gap between reading the stat and acting on it early enough to matter.